Middle East oil and gas production may take months or even years to fully recover despite the ceasefire, as damaged infrastructure, shipping disruptions, and technical challenges slow the restart of energy operations.
Dubai: The Middle East’s vital oil and gas sector is expected to take several months and in some cases even years to return to normal production levels, despite the announcement of a ceasefire that offers limited hope for resuming exports. Experts say the restart of operations is complex due to damage to infrastructure, shipping disruptions, and operational risks linked to restarting fields too quickly.
According to energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie, nearly 11 million barrels per day of oil production across the region remains offline. One of the key challenges is restoring confidence in shipping routes, especially through the strategically critical Strait of Hormuz, which is a major global energy corridor.
“A ‘workable system’ of transit and shipowner confidence… is essential,” said Alan Gelder, senior vice president for refining, chemicals and oil markets at Wood Mackenzie.
Although incentives have been introduced to encourage tanker operators to resume activity, many shipowners remain cautious. Ballast vessels ships traveling without cargo may delay entering the region due to fears of being stranded if tensions rise again. In addition, logistical limitations at ports mean that existing onshore oil inventories cannot be quickly loaded for export. Gelder noted that shipping limitations will restrict recovery for several weeks before oil production itself becomes the main constraint.
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The pace of recovery varies significantly between countries depending on available storage capacity and operational readiness. The UAE and Saudi Arabia hold storage reserves that could last about one month, while Iraq and Kuwait have less than two weeks of storage capacity.
Wood Mackenzie estimates that more than half of the region’s pre-conflict oil output could return before shipping logistics fully stabilize. However, timelines for full recovery will differ from country to country.
Fraser McKay, head of upstream analysis at Wood Mackenzie, explained that Iraq may take six to nine months to return to previous production levels due to reservoir limitations and operational challenges. Restarting oil fields too quickly could lead to permanent damage.
“Operators… to restore production too rapidly, will risk doing more long-term damage,” McKay said.
The recent conflict has caused damage to more than 40 energy-related facilities across nine countries, further complicating recovery efforts. Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, warned that supply chain disruptions could continue for an extended period due to infrastructure damage.
“You can’t just push the pause button,” said Jim Krane, a fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute, highlighting the complexity of restarting energy networks after conflict.
One of the major concerns is damage to Qatar’s Ras Laffan liquefied natural gas (LNG) complex, one of the world’s largest gas export facilities. According to QatarEnergy CEO Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi, repairs to some parts of the facility could take up to five years.
Gas production recovery is expected to be slower compared to oil, due to the technical complexity of LNG infrastructure and higher repair requirements.
Key challenges include:
Tom Marzec-Manser, head of gas and LNG analysis at Wood Mackenzie, stated that restarting all 12 LNG production trains at Ras Laffan could take until the end of August, assuming repairs progress smoothly.
He also pointed out that domestic gas infrastructure in the UAE has suffered greater damage than oil facilities, which could extend repair timelines further.
“Outside LNG, domestic gas infrastructure in the UAE has been harder hit than oil, and that recovery process could require longer-term repair work,” he added.
Industry analysts suggest that restart timelines vary depending on the scale of operations and extent of damage:
Extended shutdown periods can create technical complications such as corrosion, wax buildup inside pipelines, and pressure imbalances in reservoirs. These factors make restarting operations more challenging and increase the risk of equipment failure.
Oklahoma-based oil industry veteran Matt Randolph explained that long shutdowns can create mechanical complications that slow recovery efforts. Meanwhile, Aditya Saraswat, director of research for Middle East and North Africa at Rystad Energy, emphasized the importance of maintaining stable operations.
“The priority is to keep the fields running,” Saraswat said.
Experts say recovery will occur gradually in multiple stages rather than all at once. Analysts at Wood Mackenzie outline a structured sequence required to restore full production capacity:
1.Secure shipping lanes
2.Clear storage bottlenecks
3.Gradually restore production
4.Repair damaged infrastructure
Each stage introduces its own challenges, meaning that while partial oil and gas flows may resume relatively soon, achieving full production capacity could take a considerable amount of time.
The ceasefire provides an opportunity for progress, but the scale of disruption caused by the conflict means the Middle East’s energy markets will likely experience a phased recovery rather than a rapid rebound.
Source : Gulf News
