Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev will meet on Thursday in the United Arab Emirates to work on finalizing a peace agreement that could end nearly four decades of conflict. Both governments confirmed the meeting, which will take place in Abu Dhabi and marks the first formal talks between the two leaders since they agreed on a draft peace deal earlier this year.
The meeting follows a long history of violence and tension between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh, a region that broke away from Azerbaijan in the late 1980s with Armenia’s support. Since then, the two South Caucasus countries have fought several wars, leading to thousands of deaths and deep political divisions.
In September 2023, Azerbaijan regained full control of Nagorno-Karabakh after a military operation, prompting nearly all of the region’s estimated 100,000 ethnic Armenian residents to flee to Armenia. This significant event pushed both countries to restart peace talks, hoping to put an end to years of conflict.
Draft Deal Reached but Challenges Remain
In March this year, Armenia and Azerbaijan made a major breakthrough by agreeing on a draft text for a peace agreement. However, the timeline for officially signing the deal remains uncertain. After the draft was announced, there was a rise in ceasefire violations along the heavily fortified border, but recent weeks have seen calm return to the area.
A key obstacle to finalizing the agreement is Azerbaijan’s demand for Armenia to change its constitution. Azerbaijan claims the Armenian constitution contains wording that indirectly lays claim to Azerbaijani territory. Armenia denies this accusation, but Prime Minister Pashinyan has acknowledged that the constitution is outdated and should be revised. This topic could be one of the main issues discussed in Abu Dhabi.
Another sticking point is Azerbaijan’s request for a transport corridor through southern Armenia. This corridor would connect Azerbaijan’s mainland to its western exclave, Nakhchivan, which borders Turkey. The corridor is seen by Baku as essential for boosting regional trade and deepening ties with its ally Turkey, but it has sparked concerns in Armenia over sovereignty and security.
Despite these challenges, international support for peace remains strong. Last month, Pashinyan visited Turkey and met with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who publicly backed the peace efforts between Yerevan and Baku. The United States has also expressed hope that the two countries will reach a lasting agreement.
The upcoming meeting in Abu Dhabi is notable not only for its setting but also because it will be the first formal bilateral meeting between the leaders since the draft deal was agreed upon. Their last encounter was an informal chat in May on the sidelines of the European Political Community summit in Tirana, Albania, where they briefly discussed the peace process over coffee.
Regional Hopes for Stability
A successful peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan could reshape the South Caucasus region, improving security, trade, and diplomatic relations. For Azerbaijan, it would cement its recent territorial gains, while for Armenia, it could lead to better regional ties and economic opportunities.
The conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh has left deep wounds on both sides, but recent diplomatic efforts show signs of progress. Many observers hope the Abu Dhabi meeting will bring the two nations closer to signing a final peace treaty.
As of now, both governments appear committed to dialogue, though significant issues remain unresolved. The coming days will reveal whether this latest round of talks can turn hope into a historic agreement.