U.S. President Trump announced a “complete and total” ceasefire between Israel and Iran, brokered with Qatar's help, as Iran had already halted missile fire. However, Tehran’s foreign minister refuted any formal deal, stating Iran will only fully stand down if Israel ceases its strikes.
On the twelfth day of hostilities between Israel and Iran, former U.S. President Donald Trump announced a temporary ceasefire, although both nations continue to exchange missile strikes, plunging the region into an uneasy calm. According to Trump, a phased pause was arranged with considerable diplomatic backing—Qatar played a key role in brokering the arrangement. As part of the deal, Iran initiated a halt in operations, with Israel set to follow within 12 hours.
However, Iranian officials were quick to clarify that no formal agreement had been concluded. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that Iran halted its missile launches at 4 a.m. Tehran time (00:30 GMT), and Israeli strikes must also cease simultaneously for any sustained truce to take root . Despite these declarations, intermittent missile launches from Iran continued, including at least three separate incursions early Tuesday, injuring individuals in Be’er Sheva and triggering further exchanges .
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U.S.-Led Strikes on Iranian Nuclear Sites
On June 22, U.S. forces joined Israel in targeting Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. Employing heavy bunker-buster bombs and submarine-launched Tomahawk missiles, strikes struck deeply fortified facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan—part of an operation dubbed “Midnight Hammer.” President Trump described the strikes as "spectacularly successful," claiming the destruction of key uranium-enrichment capabilities .
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed extensive structural damage at these sites, while noting no evidence of radioactive leakage . Despite Iran’s acknowledgment of physical impacts, officials dismissed the notion of irreparable harm, saying it would take more than bunker-busters to permanently halt their program .
Iran’s Counterstrike on U.S. Al-Udeid Air Base
In response, Iran targeted the U.S. military facility at Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar on June 23. Qatar closed its airspace briefly, but its air defense network reportedly intercepted 13 out of 14 incoming ballistic missiles, preventing any casualties or material damage .
The U.S. confirmed the interceptions and emphasized no damage occurred. Nevertheless, this marked the first direct Iranian attack on an American base in the Gulf since 1979 . President Trump described the attack as “very weak,” even expressing gratitude for Iran’s early warning .
Renewed Missile Exchanges
Even after the ceasefire announcement, early Tuesday saw a fourth wave of Iranian missiles launched at Israel, including rockets toward Be’er Sheva. Israel reported three fatalities and eight injured, amidst images of apartment building damage. Simultaneously, Israeli airstrikes struck Iranian targets, including Tehran and regimental headquarters, perpetuating bilateral aggression .
Human Toll
Human rights groups estimate around 974 fatalities on the Iranian side and 24 in Israel as a result of the 12-day conflict—a heavy toll for both sides. Amid fears of civilian harm, Iran struck residential zones, while Israel targeted sensitive infrastructure and key military installations .
Regional Warnings and Airspace Disruptions
Gulf states responded with caution: the UAE, Qatar, Oman, and Bahrain temporarily closed airspaces, while airlines—including Emirates—redirected flights. Qatar’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued stern condemnation, labeling the missile attack a breach of its sovereignty and international law .
Dubai and Bahrain airports resumed operations quickly, although flight delays persisted. Air India and Egyptair suspended routes to avoid risk to their aircraft .
Global Energy and Market Concerns
Fears of a wider Gulf escalation sparked jitters in oil markets. Potential threats to the Strait of Hormuz were amplified, as Iran’s parliament voted on a plan to shut the Strait. While not implemented, the motion underscored the vulnerability of key oil transit channels .
Oil prices surged as traders reassessed geopolitical risk, although flows remained largely uninterrupted thanks to Gulf state assurances .
Ceasefire Ambiguity
Trump’s announcement of a “complete and total ceasefire” was met with skepticism. Iran’s leadership clarified that their operations would only halt provided Israel ceases airstrikes. The phased halt—even with Iran stopping first—left the truce's durability in doubt .
Mediating Role of Qatar
Qatar’s role in brokering the pause was widely acknowledged. Trump thanked Doha for its help, saying diplomacy may have forestalled a prolonged war . However, Iran’s downplaying of any formal agreement shows significant misalignment between public messaging and on‑the‑ground reality .
International Calls for De-escalation
Global and regional leaders, including the UN, France, Russia, China, and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nations, urged restraint. UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned of a “cycle of destruction” if the conflict escalated further .
Iran’s Nuclear Program at Risk
The dual strikes by Israel and the U.S. underscore a clear intent to delay or dismantle Iran’s nuclear ambitions. While IAEA assessments confirm structural damage, the underlying plants remained non-operational at the time .
The long-term efficacy of these attacks in stifling Iran’s nuclear development remains uncertain; hardened underground structures and potential uranium relocation complicate definitive conclusions .
After a dozen days of intense exchange—ranging from bunker-buster assaults on nuclear sites to intercepted intercontinental strikes—the region now finds itself in a precarious ceasefire. Trump’s unilateral declaration of a ceasefire, Qatar’s quiet mediation, and Iran’s conditional compliance signal high-stakes brinksmanship. Yet, intermittent missile fire in Be’er Sheva and ongoing Israeli bombardment of Tehran reflect the fragility of this peace.
The coming days will determine whether this ceasefire crystallizes into a lasting lull or unravels into renewed conflict. With global eyes trained on casualty figures, economic impacts, and diplomatic signaling, one misstep could shatter fragile restraint. For now, the Gulf region—and Dubai in particular—remains on alert, hoping this volatile confrontation does not expand beyond its current bounds.
