Tensions between Israel and Iran have eased after nearly two weeks of intense fighting, with both sides now observing a ceasefire. However, questions remain over how the truce came about and whether it will last.
A fragile calm appears to have taken hold in the Middle East following a dramatic announcement by former US President Donald Trump that a ceasefire had been reached between Israel and Iran. While hostilities have paused since early Tuesday, questions remain about the credibility of the US-brokered truce and the true extent of the military damage inflicted during the recent escalation.
Trump took to Truth Social on Tuesday morning to declare that the United States had successfully negotiated a ceasefire agreement between the two warring nations. However, the announcement was not immediately confirmed by either Israel or Iran, prompting skepticism and confusion as intermittent missile exchanges continued for several hours after his post.
The ceasefire eventually took hold later in the day, with both countries announcing their acceptance of the truce. Nevertheless, the delay in halting attacks and the subsequent blame game between the two nations cast doubt on the coordination behind the agreement. Trump, visibly frustrated, was quoted by NBC News as saying, “We basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don’t know what the f— they’re doing.”
Signs of De-escalation on the Ground
As tensions eased on Tuesday, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) lifted several emergency restrictions that had been imposed in the wake of Iran’s retaliatory missile barrage earlier this month. The IDF’s Home Front Command announced the reopening of schools and the resumption of regular activity in civilian areas, signalling a return to relative normalcy.
Since the conflict erupted on June 13, Israel had faced an intense period of bombardment, with many educational institutions closed and neighborhoods struck by Iranian missiles. The Home Front’s directive to shut down non-essential services had remained in place until the ceasefire appeared to stabilize.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian also acknowledged the end of hostilities, calling an end to what he termed the “12-day war.” His statement came shortly after Trump’s ceasefire declaration and reinforced the message of de-escalation, even as the international community remained cautious.
Conflicting Narratives on US Airstrikes
Amid the ceasefire developments, debate has emerged over the effectiveness of US military strikes on Iran over the weekend. While Trump asserted that the airstrikes “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program, multiple media reports citing sources familiar with the US Defense Intelligence Agency’s findings suggested otherwise.
According to those reports, the strikes did not destroy Iran’s centrifuges or enriched uranium stockpiles and may have only temporarily disrupted the nuclear program. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt acknowledged the existence of the leaked assessment but dismissed its conclusions as “flat-out wrong,” calling the leak itself a breach of classified protocols.
Trump has doubled down on his claims, rejecting suggestions that the strikes were anything less than decisive and accusing critics of undermining American success on the global stage.
A Ceasefire on Shaky Ground
Despite the current lull in violence, regional experts warn that the ceasefire may not hold for long. Jonathan Panikoff, director of the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council and a former US intelligence officer, said both countries are emerging from the conflict with significant losses.
“Iran’s regional influence has taken a major hit, and its ability to defend against Israeli strikes has been severely diminished,” Panikoff told NPR. “Meanwhile, Israel, after more than a week of intense combat, may also be nearing the limits of its defensive capabilities.”
He noted that diplomatic opportunities may emerge, potentially through neutral mediators such as Oman or China, but emphasized that Iran’s nuclear ambitions remain a major unresolved issue.
For now, both Israel and Iran appear to be stepping back from the brink — but with mutual distrust running deep, and the underlying conflicts still unresolved, the peace may prove temporary.
